Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Explained: How to Read a BTTS Prediction

Both Teams To Score (BTTS, also called GG or 'goal goal') is a yes/no question: will each team score at least one goal in the 90 minutes plus stoppage time? Extra time and penalties do not count. A 1-1 or a 3-2 is a 'yes'; a 2-0 or a 0-0 is a 'no'.

Because only the existence of a goal at each end matters, BTTS is driven by two numbers: how likely the home side is to score at least once, and how likely the away side is to score at least once.

Our model estimates each team's expected goals for the match from attack and defence ratings fitted on the last two seasons of its league, with recent matches weighted more. If the home side is expected to score λ goals, the chance it scores at least once is roughly 1 − e^(−λ) under a Poisson model. The same applies to the away side.

We do not simply multiply the two numbers: low scores (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) happen a little more or less often than independent Poisson goals suggest, so the Dixon-Coles model adds a small correction for exactly those scorelines. The BTTS probability is then the sum of every scoreline where both sides score.

Example: expected goals of 1.6 for the home side and 1.1 for the away side give about 80% and 67% to score at least once, and a BTTS 'yes' probability close to 52%.

A probability can be turned into fair odds with 1 ÷ probability: 52% is fair odds of about 1.92. If a bookmaker offers 1.80 on BTTS 'yes', its price implies about 55.6% before its own margin. On our match pages you see the model probability, the fair odds and the best price side by side.

Be honest about what a probability is: a 52% call loses almost half the time. Judge any source on hundreds of predictions, not on one weekend.