Bundesliga predicted table

10,000 simulations of the 225 remaining matches with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08). Favourites for the title: Bayern Munich (95%). Most at risk: M'gladbach (52%), Union Berlin (46%).

#	Club	Pts now	Predicted pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich	21	82	95%	100%	0%
2	Dortmund	21	70	5%	96%	0%
3	RB Leipzig	18	62	0%	74%	0%
4	Leverkusen	16	58	0%	50%	0%
5	Freiburg	19	55	0%	32%	0%
6	Stuttgart	12	54	0%	27%	0%
7	Elversberg	13	50	0%	12%	0%
8	Werder Bremen	15	46	0%	3%	1%
9	Hoffenheim	12	45	0%	2%	1%
10	Ein Frankfurt	12	43	0%	1%	2%
11	Mainz	10	43	0%	1%	2%
12	Augsburg	9	40	0%	0%	6%
13	Hamburg	12	38	0%	0%	12%
14	Paderborn	10	38	0%	0%	11%
15	FC Koln	9	34	0%	0%	27%
16	Schalke 04	6	32	0%	0%	39%
17	Union Berlin	7	32	0%	0%	46%
18	M'gladbach	4	30	0%	0%	52%

Ties on points are split by goal difference. Split formats and play-offs are not modelled; relegation counts the bottom 2 places. Updated several times a day.

Bundesliga predicted table: quick answers

Who will win the Bundesliga in 2026/27?+

Our simulations make Bayern Munich favourites at 95%, ahead of Dortmund (5%) and RB Leipzig (0%).

Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?+

The clubs most likely to go down are M'gladbach (52%), Union Berlin (46%).

What is your Bundesliga table prediction for 2026/27?+

Our predicted final table has Bayern Munich (82 pts), Dortmund (70 pts), RB Leipzig (62 pts) at the top and Union Berlin, M'gladbach at the bottom, by expected points over 10,000 simulations. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How is the predicted table calculated?+

We simulate every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model and add the results to the current table. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happened.