Championship predicted table

10,000 simulations of the 372 remaining matches with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-07). Favourites for the title: Southampton (38%). Most at risk: Preston (84%), Lincoln (49%), Derby (42%).

#	Club	Pts now	Predicted pts	Title	Top 2 (automatic promotion)	Relegation
1	Southampton	28	86	38%	61%	0%
2	Middlesbrough	29	82	18%	37%	0%
3	Birmingham	29	81	13%	30%	0%
4	Wolves	28	81	13%	29%	0%
5	West Ham	23	80	13%	27%	0%
6	West Brom	28	74	2%	6%	0%
7	Norwich	21	71	1%	3%	0%
8	Swansea	26	71	1%	3%	0%
9	Stoke	29	70	1%	2%	0%
10	QPR	24	66	0%	1%	0%
11	Sheffield United	22	66	0%	1%	0%
12	Millwall	18	63	0%	0%	1%
13	Wrexham	18	63	0%	0%	1%
14	Portsmouth	22	62	0%	0%	1%
15	Blackburn	21	60	0%	0%	2%
16	Cardiff	18	59	0%	0%	3%
17	Bristol City	18	55	0%	0%	8%
18	Burnley	10	52	0%	0%	16%
19	Bolton	17	51	0%	0%	21%
20	Charlton	17	49	0%	0%	34%
21	Watford	15	48	0%	0%	37%
22	Derby	10	47	0%	0%	42%
23	Lincoln	15	46	0%	0%	49%
24	Preston	8	39	0%	0%	84%

Ties on points are split by goal difference. Split formats and play-offs are not modelled; relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Updated several times a day.

Championship predicted table: quick answers

Who will win the Championship in 2026/27?+

Our simulations make Southampton favourites at 38%, ahead of Middlesbrough (18%) and Birmingham (13%).

Who will be relegated from the Championship?+

The clubs most likely to go down are Preston (84%), Lincoln (49%), Derby (42%).

What is your Championship table prediction for 2026/27?+

Our predicted final table has Southampton (86 pts), Middlesbrough (82 pts), Birmingham (81 pts) at the top and Derby, Lincoln, Preston at the bottom, by expected points over 10,000 simulations. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How is the predicted table calculated?+

We simulate every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model and add the results to the current table. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happened.