La Liga predicted table

10,000 simulations of the 261 remaining matches with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08). Favourites for the title: Barcelona (85%). Most at risk: Malaga (98%), Santander (51%), Valencia (32%).

#	Club	Pts now	Predicted pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation
1	Barcelona	33	95	85%	100%	0%
2	Real Madrid	30	87	14%	100%	0%
3	Ath Madrid	28	77	1%	97%	0%
4	Betis	26	69	0%	76%	0%
5	Sociedad	22	58	0%	10%	0%
6	Villarreal	15	58	0%	11%	0%
7	Ath Bilbao	16	54	0%	3%	1%
8	Sevilla	18	51	0%	2%	2%
9	La Coruna	15	49	0%	1%	3%
10	Vallecano	12	47	0%	0%	6%
11	Celta	13	47	0%	0%	6%
12	Alaves	13	45	0%	0%	10%
13	Levante	11	44	0%	0%	11%
14	Elche	10	44	0%	0%	14%
15	Espanol	12	44	0%	0%	13%
16	Getafe	12	41	0%	0%	27%
17	Osasuna	12	41	0%	0%	29%
18	Valencia	9	40	0%	0%	32%
19	Santander	14	37	0%	0%	51%
20	Malaga	5	25	0%	0%	98%

Ties on points are split by goal difference. Split formats and play-offs are not modelled; relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Updated several times a day.

La Liga predicted table: quick answers

Who will win the La Liga in 2026/27?+

Our simulations make Barcelona favourites at 85%, ahead of Real Madrid (14%) and Ath Madrid (1%).

Who will be relegated from the La Liga?+

The clubs most likely to go down are Malaga (98%), Santander (51%), Valencia (32%).

What is your La Liga table prediction for 2026/27?+

Our predicted final table has Barcelona (95 pts), Real Madrid (87 pts), Ath Madrid (77 pts) at the top and Valencia, Santander, Malaga at the bottom, by expected points over 10,000 simulations. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How is the predicted table calculated?+

We simulate every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model and add the results to the current table. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happened.