Ligue 1 predicted table

10,000 simulations of the 216 remaining matches with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08). Favourites for the title: Paris SG (89%). Most at risk: Le Havre (71%), Angers (55%).

#	Club	Pts now	Predicted pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation
1	Paris SG	23	74	89%	99%	0%
2	Lille	21	61	5%	54%	0%
3	Marseille	18	59	3%	42%	0%
4	Paris FC	20	57	2%	31%	0%
5	Lyon	17	56	1%	26%	0%
6	Monaco	16	55	1%	18%	0%
7	Lens	13	54	0%	14%	0%
8	Rennes	16	52	0%	8%	0%
9	Strasbourg	10	47	0%	2%	0%
10	Nice	17	47	0%	2%	0%
11	Brest	15	46	0%	2%	0%
12	Toulouse	13	46	0%	1%	0%
13	Lorient	15	46	0%	1%	0%
14	Auxerre	10	35	0%	0%	11%
15	Le Mans	8	32	0%	0%	22%
16	Troyes	8	29	0%	0%	40%
17	Angers	8	28	0%	0%	55%
18	Le Havre	2	25	0%	0%	71%

Ties on points are split by goal difference. Split formats and play-offs are not modelled; relegation counts the bottom 2 places. Updated several times a day.

Ligue 1 predicted table: quick answers

Who will win the Ligue 1 in 2026/27?+

Our simulations make Paris SG favourites at 89%, ahead of Lille (5%) and Marseille (3%).

Who will be relegated from the Ligue 1?+

The clubs most likely to go down are Le Havre (71%), Angers (55%).

What is your Ligue 1 table prediction for 2026/27?+

Our predicted final table has Paris SG (74 pts), Lille (61 pts), Marseille (59 pts) at the top and Angers, Le Havre at the bottom, by expected points over 10,000 simulations. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How is the predicted table calculated?+

We simulate every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model and add the results to the current table. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happened.