Premier League predicted table

10,000 simulations of the 280 remaining matches with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08). Favourites for the title: Arsenal (79%). Most at risk: Crystal Palace (68%), Coventry (65%), Ipswich (57%).

#	Club	Pts now	Predicted pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation
1	Arsenal	27	84	79%	100%	0%
2	Man City	21	73	10%	91%	0%
3	Brighton	22	73	10%	91%	0%
4	Liverpool	18	64	1%	53%	0%
5	Chelsea	16	58	0%	17%	0%
6	Bournemouth	15	57	0%	15%	0%
7	Brentford	14	57	0%	14%	0%
8	Aston Villa	13	54	0%	8%	1%
9	Everton	16	53	0%	4%	1%
10	Leeds	14	52	0%	4%	2%
11	Newcastle	12	48	0%	1%	6%
12	Man United	8	47	0%	1%	7%
13	Hull	11	47	0%	1%	7%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	46	0%	1%	10%
15	Tottenham	12	44	0%	0%	16%
16	Fulham	10	43	0%	0%	18%
17	Sunderland	8	39	0%	0%	41%
18	Ipswich	11	37	0%	0%	57%
19	Coventry	9	36	0%	0%	65%
20	Crystal Palace	7	35	0%	0%	68%

Ties on points are split by goal difference. Split formats and play-offs are not modelled; relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Updated several times a day.

Premier League predicted table: quick answers

Who will win the Premier League in 2026/27?+

Our simulations make Arsenal favourites at 79%, ahead of Man City (10%) and Brighton (10%).

Who will be relegated from the Premier League?+

The clubs most likely to go down are Crystal Palace (68%), Coventry (65%), Ipswich (57%).

What is your Premier League table prediction for 2026/27?+

Our predicted final table has Arsenal (84 pts), Man City (73 pts), Brighton (73 pts) at the top and Ipswich, Coventry, Crystal Palace at the bottom, by expected points over 10,000 simulations. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How is the predicted table calculated?+

We simulate every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model and add the results to the current table. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happened.