Primeira Liga predicted table

10,000 simulations of the 208 remaining matches with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08). Favourites for the title: Porto (64%). Most at risk: Maritimo (47%), Rio Ave (47%).

#	Club	Pts now	Predicted pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation
1	Porto	33	82	64%	92%	0%
2	Benfica	28	78	29%	78%	0%
3	Sp Lisbon	24	73	7%	30%	0%
4	Sp Braga	17	55	0%	0%	0%
5	Academico Viseu	20	55	0%	0%	0%
6	Santa Clara	21	53	0%	0%	0%
7	Arouca	20	51	0%	0%	0%
8	Gil Vicente	18	51	0%	0%	0%
9	Famalicao	13	47	0%	0%	0%
10	Moreirense	14	41	0%	0%	1%
11	Alverca	12	41	0%	0%	1%
12	Guimaraes	9	40	0%	0%	2%
13	Nacional	10	35	0%	0%	9%
14	Estrela	10	35	0%	0%	11%
15	Casa Pia	8	29	0%	0%	41%
16	Estoril	2	29	0%	0%	40%
17	Maritimo	8	28	0%	0%	47%
18	Rio Ave	7	28	0%	0%	47%

Ties on points are split by goal difference. Split formats and play-offs are not modelled; relegation counts the bottom 2 places. Updated several times a day.

Primeira Liga predicted table: quick answers

Who will win the Primeira Liga in 2026/27?+

Our simulations make Porto favourites at 64%, ahead of Benfica (29%) and Sp Lisbon (7%).

Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga?+

The clubs most likely to go down are Maritimo (47%), Rio Ave (47%).

What is your Primeira Liga table prediction for 2026/27?+

Our predicted final table has Porto (82 pts), Benfica (78 pts), Sp Lisbon (73 pts) at the top and Maritimo, Rio Ave at the bottom, by expected points over 10,000 simulations. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How is the predicted table calculated?+

We simulate every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model and add the results to the current table. The percentages are the share of simulations in which each outcome happened.