Southampton vs Derby County prediction · 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UK
VIP prediction
- Southampton 68%
- Draw 19%
- Derby County 13%
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Southampton vs Derby County preview
Southampton host Derby County in the England Championship on 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UK time at St. Mary's Stadium.
Win chances put this down as a game with a strong favourite: Southampton 68%, draw 19%, Derby County 13%. Our actual call, the goals markets and the most likely scores are for VIP members.
Southampton sit 4th on 28 points (29 scored, 15 conceded) and are in mixed form, with D-W-W-D-L in their last 5.
Derby County sit 23rd on 10 points (14 scored, 30 conceded) and are struggling for results, with L-D-L-L-W in their last 5.
At home, Southampton have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games (12–3 on goals).
Away from home, Derby County have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 league games (4–10 on goals).
On average Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0 per game; Derby County score 0.9 and concede 2.0.
The betting market agrees closely, pricing Southampton at 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Probabilities, not guarantees. 18+. How the model works · Free Premier League predictor: call the score (£24,000 game)
| Team | Pos | Pts | GF–GA | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 4 | 28 | 29–15 | DWWDL |
| Derby County | 23 | 10 | 14–30 | LDLLW |
Southampton vs Derby County: quick answers
Who will win Southampton vs Derby County?+
Win chances: Southampton 68%, draw 19%, Derby County 13%. Our call for the match is locked with a hash before kick-off and shown to VIP members. Probabilities, not guarantees.
When does Southampton vs Derby County kick off?+
21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UK time, in the England Championship.
How are the predictions made?+
A Dixon-Coles goal model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results and turns expected goals into probabilities for every market.
Proof
This prediction is locked between 36 and 1 hours before kick-off; its hash then appears here and in the public record. Until then the numbers can still move with team news.