Ligue 1 relegation predictor

Who will go down? We play out the 216 remaining Ligue 1 matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 2. Most at risk right now: Le Havre (71%), Angers (55%).

In the relegation battle

clubs with a 5% or higher chance of going down

Projected survival line

29 pts

expected points of the club projected 16th

Effectively safe

clubs under a 1% chance of relegation

Ligue 1 relegation odds for every club

Pos	Club	Pld	GD	Pts	Predicted pts	Relegation
18	Le Havre	10	-13	2	25	71%
16	Angers	10	-10	8	28	55%
17	Troyes	10	-10	8	29	40%
15	Le Mans	10	-7	8	32	22%
14	Auxerre	10	-11	10	35	11%
13	Strasbourg	10	-4	10	47	0%
10	Lorient	10	+1	15	46	0%
12	Toulouse	10	+1	13	46	0%
6	Nice	10	+3	17	47	0%
9	Brest	10	+6	15	46	0%
8	Rennes	10	0	16	52	0%
1	Paris SG	10	+12	23	74	0%
2	Lille	10	+7	21	61	0%
4	Marseille	10	+8	18	59	0%
3	Paris FC	10	+7	20	57	0%
5	Lyon	10	+6	17	56	0%
7	Monaco	10	+2	16	55	0%
11	Lens	10	+2	13	54	0%

Sorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 2 places; the relegation play-off place is not modelled. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.

The relegation run-in: next fixtures

The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).

Le Havre (71%)Troyes v Le Havre, Friday 20 November Le Havre v Strasbourg, Saturday 28 November
Angers (55%)Paris FC v Angers, Sunday 22 November Angers v RC Lens, Saturday 28 November
Troyes (40%)Troyes v Le Havre, Friday 20 November Nice v Troyes, Saturday 28 November
Le Mans (22%)Marseille v Le Mans FC, Sunday 22 November Le Mans FC v Lille, Saturday 28 November
Auxerre (11%)AS Monaco v Auxerre, Saturday 21 November

Six-pointers coming up: Troyes v Le Havre.

Predicted final table

Title, top-3 and relegation odds for all 18 clubs →

Ligue 1 predictions

Table, form and every upcoming Ligue 1 match →

Ligue 1 relegation: quick answers

Who will be relegated from the Ligue 1 in 2026/27?+

On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Le Havre (71%), Angers (55%). 5 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.

How many points will it take to stay up in the Ligue 1?+

The club projected to finish just above the drop (16th) is on course for about 29 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.

How does the Ligue 1 relegation predictor work?+

We take the real table, simulate every one of the 216 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 2. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How many clubs go down from the Ligue 1?+

We count the bottom 2 places as relegation. Relegation play-offs are not modelled, so a club in the play-off place is counted as safe.