Primeira Liga relegation predictor
Who will go down? We play out the 208 remaining Primeira Liga matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 2. Most at risk right now: Maritimo (47%), Rio Ave (47%).
Primeira Liga relegation odds for every club
| Pos | Club | Pld | GD | Pts | Predicted pts | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 | 28 | 47% |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 | 28 | 47% |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 | 29 | 41% |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 | 29 | 40% |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 | 35 | 11% |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 | 35 | 9% |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 11 | -1 | 9 | 40 | 2% |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 | 41 | 1% |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 | 41 | 1% |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 | 47 | 0% |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 | 53 | 0% |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 | 51 | 0% |
| 1 | Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 | 82 | 0% |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 | 78 | 0% |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 11 | +13 | 24 | 73 | 0% |
| 8 | Sp Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 | 55 | 0% |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 | 55 | 0% |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 | 51 | 0% |
Maritimo
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela
Nacional
Guimaraes
Alverca
Moreirense
Famalicao
Santa Clara
Arouca
Porto
Benfica
Sp Lisbon
Sp Braga
Academico Viseu
Gil VicenteSorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 2 places. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.
The relegation run-in: next fixtures
The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).
- Maritimo (47%)CS Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November
- Rio Ave (47%)Arouca v Rio Ave FC, Saturday 28 November
- Casa Pia (41%)no fixture listed yet
- Estoril (40%)no fixture listed yet
- Estrela (11%)Vitória SC v CF Estrela, Saturday 28 November
- Nacional (9%)CS Maritimo v Nacional, Friday 27 November
Six-pointers coming up: CS Maritimo v Nacional.
Primeira Liga relegation: quick answers
Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga in 2026/27?+
On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Maritimo (47%), Rio Ave (47%). 6 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.
How many points will it take to stay up in the Primeira Liga?+
The club projected to finish just above the drop (16th) is on course for about 29 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.
How does the Primeira Liga relegation predictor work?+
We take the real table, simulate every one of the 208 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 2. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.
How many clubs go down from the Primeira Liga?+
We count the bottom 2 places as relegation.