Championship relegation predictor

Who will go down? We play out the 372 remaining Championship matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-07), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 3. Most at risk right now: Preston (84%), Lincoln (49%), Derby (42%).

In the relegation battle

clubs with a 5% or higher chance of going down

Projected survival line

48 pts

expected points of the club projected 21th

Effectively safe

clubs under a 1% chance of relegation

Championship relegation odds for every club

Pos	Club	Pld	GD	Pts	Predicted pts	Relegation
24	Preston	15	-17	8	39	84%
21	Lincoln	15	-11	15	46	49%
23	Derby	15	-16	10	47	42%
20	Watford	15	-10	15	48	37%
19	Charlton	15	-10	17	49	34%
18	Bolton	15	-9	17	51	21%
22	Burnley	15	-9	10	52	16%
17	Bristol City	15	-8	18	55	8%
14	Cardiff	15	0	18	59	3%
13	Blackburn	15	-1	21	60	2%
11	Portsmouth	15	+2	22	62	1%
15	Wrexham	15	-2	18	63	1%
16	Millwall	15	-4	18	63	1%
10	Sheffield United	15	+2	22	66	0%
8	QPR	15	+6	24	66	0%
12	Norwich	15	+8	21	71	0%
3	Stoke	15	+6	29	70	0%
7	Swansea	15	+4	26	71	0%
4	Southampton	15	+14	28	86	0%
2	Middlesbrough	15	+11	29	82	0%
1	Birmingham	15	+14	29	81	0%
5	Wolves	15	+8	28	81	0%
9	West Ham	15	+14	23	80	0%
6	West Brom	15	+8	28	74	0%

Sorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.

The relegation run-in: next fixtures

The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).

Preston (84%)West Ham United v Preston North End, Saturday 21 November
Lincoln (49%)Lincoln City v Wrexham AFC, Saturday 21 November
Derby (42%)Southampton v Derby County, Saturday 21 November
Watford (37%)Sheffield United v Watford, Saturday 21 November
Charlton (34%)Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic, Saturday 21 November
Bolton (21%)Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth, Saturday 21 November
Burnley (16%)Burnley v Blackburn Rovers, Sunday 22 November
Bristol City (8%)Middlesbrough v Bristol City, Saturday 21 November

Predicted final table

Title, top-2 and relegation odds for all 24 clubs →

Championship predictions

Table, form and every upcoming Championship match →

Championship relegation: quick answers

Who will be relegated from the Championship in 2026/27?+

On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Preston (84%), Lincoln (49%), Derby (42%). 8 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.

How many points will it take to stay up in the Championship?+

The club projected to finish just above the drop (21th) is on course for about 48 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.

How does the Championship relegation predictor work?+

We take the real table, simulate every one of the 372 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 3. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How many clubs go down from the Championship?+

We count the bottom 3 places as relegation.