Eredivisie relegation predictor
Who will go down? We play out the 198 remaining Eredivisie matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 2. Most at risk right now: Willem II (100%), Zwolle (28%).
Eredivisie relegation odds for every club
| Pos | Club | Pld | GD | Pts | Predicted pts | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 | 13 | 100% |
| 13 | Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 | 33 | 28% |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 | 34 | 26% |
| 17 | Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 | 34 | 19% |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 | 35 | 17% |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 | 39 | 5% |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 | 41 | 3% |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 | 44 | 1% |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 | 44 | 1% |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 | 47 | 0% |
| 7 | For Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 | 48 | 0% |
| 11 | Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 | 46 | 0% |
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 | 76 | 0% |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 | 69 | 0% |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 | 67 | 0% |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 | 67 | 0% |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 | 58 | 0% |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 | 56 | 0% |
Willem II
Zwolle
Excelsior
Den Haag
Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar
Utrecht
Cambuur
Go Ahead Eagles
Groningen
For Sittard
Nijmegen
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
Twente
AZ Alkmaar
HeerenveenSorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 2 places; the relegation play-off place is not modelled. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.
The relegation run-in: next fixtures
The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).
- Willem II (100%)FC Twente Enschede v Willem II, Sunday 22 November
- Zwolle (28%)SC Telstar v FC Zwolle, Saturday 21 November
- Excelsior (26%)Feyenoord v Excelsior, Saturday 21 November
- Den Haag (19%)Ajax v ADO Den Haag, Sunday 22 November
- Sparta Rotterdam (17%)Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar, Sunday 22 November
- Telstar (5%)SC Telstar v FC Zwolle, Saturday 21 November
Six-pointers coming up: SC Telstar v FC Zwolle.
Eredivisie relegation: quick answers
Who will be relegated from the Eredivisie in 2026/27?+
On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Willem II (100%), Zwolle (28%). 6 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.
How many points will it take to stay up in the Eredivisie?+
The club projected to finish just above the drop (16th) is on course for about 34 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.
How does the Eredivisie relegation predictor work?+
We take the real table, simulate every one of the 198 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 2. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.
How many clubs go down from the Eredivisie?+
We count the bottom 2 places as relegation. Relegation play-offs are not modelled, so a club in the play-off place is counted as safe.