Premiership relegation predictor

Who will go down? We play out the 57 remaining Premiership matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 1. Most at risk right now: Kilmarnock (58%).

In the relegation battle

clubs with a 5% or higher chance of going down

Projected survival line

21 pts

expected points of the club projected 11th

Effectively safe

clubs under a 1% chance of relegation

Premiership relegation odds for every club

Pos	Club	Pld	GD	Pts	Predicted pts	Relegation
12	Kilmarnock	13	-16	9	18	58%
11	Aberdeen	12	-6	11	21	23%
8	St Mirren	13	-10	14	23	11%
9	Motherwell	13	-6	13	25	3%
10	Hibernian	12	-2	11	26	3%
7	St Johnstone	13	-3	17	26	1%
5	Dundee	12	+3	17	29	0%
6	Dundee United	12	0	17	29	0%
1	Celtic	13	+18	31	49	0%
2	Rangers	12	+12	27	47	0%
4	Hearts	12	+4	20	37	0%
3	Falkirk	13	+6	21	35	0%

Sorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 1 places; the relegation play-off place is not modelled. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.

The relegation run-in: next fixtures

The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).

Kilmarnock (58%)Kilmarnock v Aberdeen, Saturday 21 November
Aberdeen (23%)Kilmarnock v Aberdeen, Saturday 21 November Rangers v Aberdeen, Tuesday 24 November
St Mirren (11%)Celtic v St Mirren, Saturday 21 November

Six-pointers coming up: Kilmarnock v Aberdeen.

Predicted final table

Title, top-2 and relegation odds for all 12 clubs →

Premiership predictions

Table, form and every upcoming Premiership match →

Premiership relegation: quick answers

Who will be relegated from the Premiership in 2026/27?+

On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Kilmarnock (58%). 3 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.

How many points will it take to stay up in the Premiership?+

The club projected to finish just above the drop (11th) is on course for about 21 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.

How does the Premiership relegation predictor work?+

We take the real table, simulate every one of the 57 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 1. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How many clubs go down from the Premiership?+

We count the bottom 1 places as relegation. Relegation play-offs are not modelled, so a club in the play-off place is counted as safe.