Serie A relegation predictor

Who will go down? We play out the 270 remaining Serie A matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 3. Most at risk right now: Monza (73%), Venezia (69%), Udinese (49%).

In the relegation battle

clubs with a 5% or higher chance of going down

Projected survival line

34 pts

expected points of the club projected 17th

Effectively safe

clubs under a 1% chance of relegation

Serie A relegation odds for every club

Pos	Club	Pld	GD	Pts	Predicted pts	Relegation
18	Monza	11	-8	7	29	73%
19	Venezia	11	-13	6	30	69%
20	Udinese	11	-13	5	33	49%
14	Lecce	11	-10	10	34	42%
16	Parma	11	-8	8	35	36%
17	Sassuolo	11	-13	8	39	18%
15	Fiorentina	11	-8	9	44	5%
11	Torino	11	-2	14	44	4%
13	Genoa	11	-5	13	46	2%
9	Cagliari	11	-5	16	46	2%
12	Atalanta	11	-3	14	54	0%
8	Bologna	11	+2	17	55	0%
2	Inter	11	+15	28	85	0%
3	Roma	11	+21	27	82	0%
5	Como	11	+8	23	73	0%
1	Lazio	11	+16	29	71	0%
4	Milan	11	+10	24	69	0%
6	Frosinone	11	+9	20	65	0%
10	Napoli	11	+4	15	63	0%
7	Juventus	11	+3	18	62	0%

Sorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.

The relegation run-in: next fixtures

The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).

Monza (73%)Monza v Fiorentina, Monday 23 November
Venezia (69%)Juventus v Venezia, Sunday 22 November Venezia v Bologna, Friday 27 November
Udinese (49%)Bologna v Udinese, Sunday 22 November
Lecce (42%)Lazio v Lecce, Saturday 21 November
Parma (36%)Parma v AS Roma, Saturday 21 November Frosinone v Parma, Saturday 28 November
Sassuolo (18%)Sassuolo v Genoa, Sunday 22 November
Fiorentina (5%)Monza v Fiorentina, Monday 23 November

Six-pointers coming up: Monza v Fiorentina.

Predicted final table

Title, top-4 and relegation odds for all 20 clubs →

Serie A predictions

Table, form and every upcoming Serie A match →

Serie A relegation: quick answers

Who will be relegated from the Serie A in 2026/27?+

On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Monza (73%), Venezia (69%), Udinese (49%). 7 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.

How many points will it take to stay up in the Serie A?+

The club projected to finish just above the drop (17th) is on course for about 34 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.

How does the Serie A relegation predictor work?+

We take the real table, simulate every one of the 270 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 3. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.

How many clubs go down from the Serie A?+

We count the bottom 3 places as relegation.