Premier League relegation predictor
Who will go down? We play out the 280 remaining Premier League matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 3. Most at risk right now: Crystal Palace (68%), Coventry (65%), Ipswich (57%).
Premier League relegation odds for every club
| Pos | Club | Pld | GD | Pts | Predicted pts | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 | 35 | 68% |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 | 36 | 65% |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 | 37 | 57% |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 | 39 | 41% |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 | 43 | 18% |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 | 44 | 16% |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 | 46 | 10% |
| 18 | Man United | 10 | -5 | 8 | 47 | 7% |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 7% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 | 48 | 6% |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 | 52 | 2% |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 | 53 | 1% |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 | 54 | 1% |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 | 57 | 0% |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 | 57 | 0% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 | 58 | 0% |
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 | 84 | 0% |
| 3 | Man City | 10 | +8 | 21 | 73 | 0% |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 | 73 | 0% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 | 64 | 0% |
Crystal Palace
Coventry
Ipswich
Sunderland
Fulham
Tottenham
Nott'm Forest
Man United
Hull
Newcastle
Leeds
Everton
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Brentford
Chelsea
Arsenal
Man City
Brighton
LiverpoolSorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.
The relegation run-in: next fixtures
The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).
- Crystal Palace (68%)Coventry City v Crystal Palace, Saturday 21 November
- Coventry (65%)Coventry City v Crystal Palace, Saturday 21 NovemberLeeds United v Coventry City, Saturday 28 November
- Ipswich (57%)Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town, Saturday 21 NovemberIpswich Town v Aston Villa, Saturday 28 November
- Sunderland (41%)Aston Villa v Sunderland, Saturday 21 November
- Fulham (18%)Manchester City v Fulham, Saturday 21 November
- Tottenham (16%)Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town, Saturday 21 November
- Nott'm Forest (10%)Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest, Saturday 21 NovemberNottingham Forest v Chelsea, Friday 27 November
- Man United (7%)Liverpool v Manchester United, Sunday 22 NovemberManchester United v Brentford, Saturday 28 November
- Hull (7%)Hull City v Brighton and Hove Albion, Sunday 22 November
- Newcastle (6%)Newcastle United v Arsenal, Saturday 21 November
Six-pointers coming up: Coventry City v Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town.
Premier League relegation: quick answers
Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2026/27?+
On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Crystal Palace (68%), Coventry (65%), Ipswich (57%). 10 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.
How many points will it take to stay up in the Premier League?+
The club projected to finish just above the drop (17th) is on course for about 39 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.
How does the Premier League relegation predictor work?+
We take the real table, simulate every one of the 280 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 3. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.
How many clubs go down from the Premier League?+
We count the bottom 3 places as relegation.