La Liga relegation predictor
Who will go down? We play out the 261 remaining La Liga matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 3. Most at risk right now: Malaga (98%), Santander (51%), Valencia (32%).
La Liga relegation odds for every club
| Pos | Club | Pld | GD | Pts | Predicted pts | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 | 25 | 98% |
| 10 | Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 | 37 | 51% |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 | 40 | 32% |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 | 41 | 29% |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 | 41 | 27% |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 | 44 | 14% |
| 13 | Espanol | 12 | -1 | 12 | 44 | 13% |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 | 44 | 11% |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 | 45 | 10% |
| 14 | Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 | 47 | 6% |
| 11 | Celta | 12 | 0 | 13 | 47 | 6% |
| 9 | La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 | 49 | 3% |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 | 51 | 2% |
| 7 | Ath Bilbao | 11 | +4 | 16 | 54 | 1% |
| 5 | Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 | 58 | 0% |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 | 58 | 0% |
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 | 95 | 0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 | 87 | 0% |
| 3 | Ath Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 | 77 | 0% |
| 4 | Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 | 69 | 0% |
Malaga
Santander
Valencia
Osasuna
Getafe
Elche
Espanol
Levante
Alaves
Vallecano
Celta
La Coruna
Sevilla
Ath Bilbao
Sociedad
Villarreal
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Ath Madrid
BetisSorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 3 places. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.
The relegation run-in: next fixtures
The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).
- Malaga (98%)CA Osasuna v Málaga, Sunday 22 NovemberMálaga v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 28 November
- Santander (51%)Real Racing Club de Santander v Real Sociedad, Sunday 22 NovemberLevante v Real Racing Club de Santander, Friday 27 November
- Valencia (32%)Rayo Vallecano v Valencia, Saturday 21 November
- Osasuna (29%)CA Osasuna v Málaga, Sunday 22 November
- Getafe (27%)Getafe v Atlético Madrid, Sunday 22 November
- Elche (14%)Levante v Elche CF, Monday 23 NovemberElche CF v Atlético Madrid, Saturday 28 November
- Espanol (13%)Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol, Friday 20 November
- Levante (11%)Levante v Elche CF, Monday 23 NovemberLevante v Real Racing Club de Santander, Friday 27 November
- Alaves (10%)Alavés v Deportivo La Coruña, Saturday 21 NovemberReal Madrid v Alavés, Saturday 28 November
- Vallecano (6%)Rayo Vallecano v Valencia, Saturday 21 NovemberReal Betis v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 28 November
- Celta (6%)Real Madrid v Celta Vigo, Saturday 21 November
Six-pointers coming up: Rayo Vallecano v Valencia, CA Osasuna v Málaga, Levante v Elche CF, Levante v Real Racing Club de Santander.
La Liga relegation: quick answers
Who will be relegated from the La Liga in 2026/27?+
On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are Malaga (98%), Santander (51%), Valencia (32%). 11 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.
How many points will it take to stay up in the La Liga?+
The club projected to finish just above the drop (17th) is on course for about 41 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.
How does the La Liga relegation predictor work?+
We take the real table, simulate every one of the 261 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 3. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.
How many clubs go down from the La Liga?+
We count the bottom 3 places as relegation.