Bundesliga relegation predictor
Who will go down? We play out the 225 remaining Bundesliga matches 10,000 times with our goal model, starting from the real table (results to 2026-11-08), and count how often each club finishes in the bottom 2. Most at risk right now: M'gladbach (52%), Union Berlin (46%).
Bundesliga relegation odds for every club
| Pos | Club | Pld | GD | Pts | Predicted pts | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | M'gladbach | 9 | -13 | 4 | 30 | 52% |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | -14 | 7 | 32 | 46% |
| 17 | Schalke 04 | 9 | -6 | 6 | 32 | 39% |
| 15 | FC Koln | 9 | -4 | 9 | 34 | 27% |
| 11 | Hamburg | 9 | -10 | 12 | 38 | 12% |
| 13 | Paderborn | 9 | -3 | 10 | 38 | 11% |
| 14 | Augsburg | 9 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 6% |
| 12 | Mainz | 9 | -1 | 10 | 43 | 2% |
| 10 | Ein Frankfurt | 9 | -5 | 12 | 43 | 2% |
| 9 | Hoffenheim | 9 | -1 | 12 | 45 | 1% |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | +2 | 15 | 46 | 1% |
| 7 | Elversberg | 9 | -1 | 13 | 50 | 0% |
| 8 | Stuttgart | 9 | 0 | 12 | 54 | 0% |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | +20 | 21 | 82 | 0% |
| 2 | Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 | 70 | 0% |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 | 62 | 0% |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 9 | +3 | 16 | 58 | 0% |
| 3 | Freiburg | 9 | +10 | 19 | 55 | 0% |
M'gladbach
Union Berlin
Schalke 04
FC Koln
Hamburg
Paderborn
Augsburg
Mainz
Ein Frankfurt
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Elversberg
Stuttgart
Bayern Munich
Dortmund
RB Leipzig
Leverkusen
FreiburgSorted by relegation chance. Relegation counts the bottom 2 places; the relegation play-off place is not modelled. Ties on points are split by goal difference. Updated several times a day.
The relegation run-in: next fixtures
The next league games for every club in the battle (5%+ chance of going down).
- M'gladbach (52%)Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 21 NovemberWerder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach, Friday 27 November
- Union Berlin (46%)Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Saturday 21 NovemberFSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin, Saturday 28 November
- Schalke 04 (39%)FC Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart, Saturday 21 NovemberSC Paderborn v FC Schalke 04, Saturday 28 November
- FC Koln (27%)Bayern Munich v 1. FC Köln, Friday 20 November1. FC Köln v Elversberg, Saturday 28 November
- Hamburg (12%)Werder Bremen v Hamburger SV, Sunday 22 NovemberHamburger SV v Bayern Munich, Saturday 28 November
- Paderborn (11%)Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn, Saturday 21 NovemberSC Paderborn v FC Schalke 04, Saturday 28 November
- Augsburg (6%)Augsburg v FSV Mainz 05, Sunday 22 November
Six-pointers coming up: SC Paderborn v FC Schalke 04.
Bundesliga relegation: quick answers
Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga in 2026/27?+
On our 10,000 simulations the clubs most likely to go down are M'gladbach (52%), Union Berlin (46%). 7 clubs have at least a 5% chance, so the picture can still change a lot.
How many points will it take to stay up in the Bundesliga?+
The club projected to finish just above the drop (16th) is on course for about 32 points by expected points. That is an average over the simulations, not a fixed target: the real survival line moves with every result.
How does the Bundesliga relegation predictor work?+
We take the real table, simulate every one of the 225 remaining fixtures 10,000 times with our Dixon-Coles goal model, and count how often each club ends in the bottom 2. The percentage is the share of simulations in which that club went down. It updates several times a day as results come in.
How many clubs go down from the Bundesliga?+
We count the bottom 2 places as relegation. Relegation play-offs are not modelled, so a club in the play-off place is counted as safe.